Why content is less like chess and more like poker?

I recently read Annie Duke’s book Thinking in Bets.

She is a professional poker player and a decision-making coach.

Having read this book, I realized how many mistakes I make in my decisions every day.

Most of my decisions as a content agency owner and a ghostwriter are related to content.

And I’m often wrong.

She explains that every decision you make is a bet.

Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn’t, and sometimes you get a lukewarm response.

In a sense, she says Luck + Skill = Outcome.

Hustle culture will tell you that you don’t need luck on your side as long as you work hard.

But as you must have experienced at some point in your life, it doesn’t work that way.

Now, that doesn’t mean it's all luck.

You have something in your control – Skill.

Both of them combined give you better odds to win a bet.

Today, I'll share 3 common mistakes people while making a content decision and 5 ways to avoid them.

Self-serving bias

Most people, when they’re judging the outcome of a decision, take credit for the win and blame luck for the loss.

Psychologists call it self-serving bias.

I’m sure you’ve heard people say,

“I’m always unlucky."

"Things never go my way. "

"Everything is stacked against me.”

But whenever they win, they take all the credit. You’ll often hear them say,

“See, told you so. I knew it. I’m rarely wrong.”

Research found that 37% of drivers involved in single-car accidents were able to point out the mistakes of others.

Surprisingly, the opposite happens when you’re judging the outcome of someone else.

You give credit to luck when others win and blame their skill whenever they lose.

I can sure as hell tell you that I do this so often I’ve lost count.

This belief doesn’t serve you.

You don’t improve your decision-making skills with such a mindset.

Because you don’t see things as they are, you don’t record the right feedback.

Let’s say one of your threads did well.

You got 50+ subs from it. But since you took all the credit for the win, you keep posting the same content again and again. Boring your audience. Killing your brand reputation. And the results also seem to not go in your favor at all.

Now, you start blaming your luck for the bad outcome.

That’s why you should neither take full credit for your win nor give full blame to luck for your loss.

Life is more complicated than that.

Content is more complicated than that.

Stop-loss

This term is often used by traders.

It is used to limit loss in a trade.

And it's crucial to take them into consideration when you're making a decision.

In content, that would mean time spent on writing and researching.

And sometimes the marketing cost behind it – buying paid slots in newsletters or retweets. However, outcomes are poor indicators of the quality of your decisions.

You can post the best content with high-quality research but still not get much engagement on it.

I'm sure you've seen others putting in less effort but getting more resonance.

"What about those who are not building brands? Are they playing the game?"

The answer is Yes.

Not placing a bet on something is a bet in itself. There is always an opportunity cost in choosing one path over others.

Like life, content is more like poker than chess.

In chess, the odds are completely dependent on your skill.

If you know the right moves, you can NEVER lose.

It’s one of the reasons that in this sport, even the best players can’t beat AI.

Because AI can calculate everything, it never loses.

But content is much more like real life.

You need a little bit of luck and a lot of skills.

When you put a lot of effort into content and don't get the desired results, recognize that outcomes are out of your control.

Say “I don’t know” more often.

Predict in numbers

It’s easy to win a bet against someone who talks in extremes.

“I’m 100% sure.”

“You couldn’t be more wrong.”

“See, I told you, I’m never wrong.”

Such people are blindfolded by their beliefs.

A few times, outcomes went their way, and now they think that’s how it always will be.

Their belief system disregards how much luck plays a role in that, and they’re on a lucky streak.

And when the day comes when the outcome isn’t favorable, they lose big, they go into shock, and feel they were so wrong.

As we all know, losing hurts twice as much as winning feels good – It's called Loss aversion.

Instead of thinking in extremes, being right vs. wrong, Annie suggests you should judge in numbers.

I’m sure you’ve heard some people say,

“I’m 60% sure that Biden will lose elections."

"India has a 90% chance of winning the World Cup."

So whenever you’re putting out content, don’t think in extremes.

Don’t think it will be a banger.

Don’t think you can predict the outcome.

Instead, judge the quality of your content and leave the odds of luck out of it.

A good way of saying it would be, “My content this week is looking solid. I’m 60% sure it will resonate with my audience and bring some warm leads.”

This way, you're implying that you want favorable results, yet keep in mind that results can go the other way.

They are more prepared for setbacks.

They plan more vigorously.

They play long-term games.

How to fix your content decisions:

1. Update your learning loop

Most people refuse to recognize the role of luck in their outcomes.

Luck vs. Skill has always been debated. But no one can say for sure how much of a role it plays in an outcome.

Is it 40% skill or 60% luck? You can never guess.

That’s why this should be your learning loop.